Contrarian
By Kris Lazaro (11/30/2006)
Definition
In the sports gambling industry the term contrarian refers to betting against the public, and thus siding with the sportsbooks in a sporting event.
Why bet contrarian?
Las Vegas was built on money lost by gamblers. If sports gambling were so easy, sportsbooks would not exist. Sometimes the easiest bet to make are the ones that almost always lose. This is especially true in high profile games, games on national television, and in the higher interest sports (ie. NFL, NCAAF, etc.). Playing contrarian does not really work in baseball, since the odds are truer and are based on a team’s chances of winning the game (although later on in the season, huge favorites become bigger favorites due to the advent of football season and thus more gamblers).
Who plays contrarian?
Most sharp plays (those plays that are made by professionals and those in the know)
usually play these types of plays. Since the betting public is wrong approximately 60% of the time, siding with the sportsbooks in these situations will prove profitable in the long run. A word of caution though: do not merely blindly bet against the public—one must also handicap and analyze a game before one may use this type of betting system.
When is betting contrarian most profitable?
Betting this way actually becomes most profitable during the playoffs of the major sporting events. Since there is a bigger handle on these events (more people betting), and since the sportsbooks do not want to go bankrupt on paying these potential winning bets, lines are usually shaded to the ‘public darling’ teams. Before the last Superbowl, Las Vegas had won every single Superbowl since the mid 1990’s, meaning the public lost their hard-earned money on their ‘public darlings’ for the last couple of years. In general, the NFL is the best sport to bet contrarian. So much handle creates the need to shade several of the lines, lest the sportsbooks lose every Sunday.
How do I find the public plays?
There are several places on the internet whereby the player can investigate and find out where the public money is flowing. Some sites include
www.covers.com
www.sportsinsights.com
www.sportsbook.com
Caution
Not all public plays are wrong plays. Sometimes the public does win (in fact the 2005-06 NFL season was one of the worst on record for the sportsbooks). In fact, sometimes, the betting public will also be on the same side as the sharps. In order to decipher such sitations, one must be able to read line movements and decipher accordingly.
Summary
Do not merely bet against the public. Betting contrarian is simply another angle sports gamblers/handicappers use to determine their plays. If used correctly, though, betting against the public will be profitable in the long term.
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