Sports Betting Guide and Terms - Favorite

Definition

The favorite in a matchup, as in the definition of the underdog, is an arbitrary term devised by the sportsbooks to label a team in a particular matchup. Favorites are those that are ‘favored’ to win the game.

Do favorites really win?

Favorites on the spread, as they are found in pointspread games, are usually a bad bet. These lines are often shaded, due to the public’s obsession with betting on the favorites. In baseball, though, higher priced favorites due win at a higher rate than their underdog counterparts (especially those favorites >-200 on the moneyline).

Fading the public.

As stated earlier, fading the public and going against the favorite on the spread can be very profitable in the long term. In high profile games, for example, the public ‘falls in love’ with one side, forcing the sportsbooks to shade this side to avoid being exposed. The favorite may win the event, but not cover the spread.

Is it better to bet the pointspread or the moneyline?

In general, it is better to bet the pointspread rather than the moneyline as it relates to betting on the favorite. Teams who win usually cover the spread, so if one believes the favorite will win the matchup, it is generally safe to bet such a team against the spread (with obvious exceptions as stated earlier). There are also some other situations where taking the favorite against the spread (ATS) can be quite profitable:

Revenge games

Teams vying for playoff positioning

‘Favorable’ spots for the favored team (statistically speaking)

Unmotivated underdogs / Motivated favorites

Are parlays a good idea?

Most sharps and professional player agree that parlays are a bad idea. A common fault of many new sports gamblers is parlaying favorites on the moneyline, thinking that if a team is ‘favored’ to win, then betting on them on the moneyline is a safe bet. This cannot be farther from the truth. Even though a team is ‘favored’ to win, this does not necessarily mean that they will. It would actually be better, and usually more profitable, to play 3 underdogs on the moneyline (any sport) than to parlay their opposition (all favorites) on the moneyline. Many things can happen in a game, and as in the example just stated, relying on three teams to win their respective games is statistically ‘asking too much’.

Summary

In closing, the favorite in pointspread games is generally a bad bet. The spreads for favorites are usually shaded, thus, one must choose ‘spots’ when it comes to backing the favorite. In baseball, though, higher priced favorites do win at an alarmingly high rate.