Sports Betting Guide and Terms - Long Shot 

Definition

The term long shot is universal. Even if one does not gamble, the average person has heard of the term long shot. In the sports and horse betting industry, the term long shot refers to a bet that is highly unlikely to occur.

Horse Racing

A professional horse handicapper once told the author that to really win at the tracks, one must not always bet on the betting favorite. If one is to be successful in the long run, one must have a mixture of small underdogs to long shots. This line of thinking also applies to sports betting.

Sports betting

Although it is not highly recommended to bet the long shots (mostly betting on the moneyline of greater than +500), it is not entirely to bad all the time. The author does recommend to never bet on a favorite of similar magnitude (greater than –500). If one decides to bet this way, one must realize that long shots do win, but at a very low percentage—thus, one must really pick the spots to back such teams.

Against the spread

Longshots against the spread (ATS) can be very tricky. This mostly occurs in college football, where a disparity of strength, skill, and agility is most apparent. For example, a division IA team such as Texas was once favored by 50 points against an in-state division IAA rival. Bettor beware though—although a team may be given 50 points, they may still not cover. To close the example, the division IAA school lost by 55 points!

Finding the right spots

A fellow handicapper once told me that any team can win on any given day. Like the movie “any given Sunday”, this statement does and can apply to any situation. If a team is looking forward to avenging a lost to a close rival, such a team may not be so motivated during a game in which it is highly favored. Such is a great spot for a huge underdog to win the game straight up. Another situation occurs when a team has a monumental collapse. For example, when the 2006 Michigan State Spartans football team blew a 17 point halftime lead to the Irish of Notre Dame and eventually lost the game by 3 points, the Spartans lost their following game straight up to lowly Illinois as 25 point favorites!

Summary

In closing, long shots are those that are most unlikely to win. This does not entirely mean that they will never win, but will win at a much lower rate than those of comparable favorites. The author suggests picking the right spots to back such teams / horses.